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深度了解,德国出口,走下神坛?

彩搜网DEGUOLIANBANGTONGJIJURIQIANGONGBUDESHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIANERJIDUDEGUOGUONEISHENGCHANZONGZHIHUANBIXIAJIANG0.1%。ZHEISHIJI2018NIANSANJIDUSHUAITUI0.1%、SIJIDULINGZENGZHANGZHIHOU,DEGUOJINGJIYOUYICICHUXIANWEISUO。DEGUOZHENGFUJINERXIADIAOLEQUANNIANZENGZHANGYUQI,GENGYOUMEITIHEJINGJIXUEJIAYUCEDEGUOJIANGXIANRUSHUAITUIQI。YISHIJIAN,DEGUOJINGJICHENGWEIWAIJIEGUANZHUDEJIAODIAN,“DEGUOSHENHUA”HUIJIUCIZHONGJIEMA?



造衰退,外贸失速


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DEGUOYANGXINGSHUJUXIANSHI,2019NIANQIANLIANGJIDU,DEGUOGONGYECHANZHIHUANBILIANXUXIAJIANG4.2%HE1.0%,GONGYEJINGQIZHISHUSHI2012NIANYILAIDEZUIDISHUIPING。QICHEYEZHEIGEZHIZAOYE“LONGTOULAODA”,2019NIANSHANGBANNIANCHANCHUTONGBIXIAJIANGLE12%,6YUEDANYUEJIANGFUGENGSHIGAODA25%。DAIMULE、DALUJITUAN(OUZHOUZUIDAQIPEIGONGYINGSHANG)DENGQICHESHANGXIAYOUQIYEFENFENXIADIAOYEJIYUQI。6YUE,JIXIEZHIZAOYEXINZENGDINGDANLIANGTONGBIXIAJIANG5%,QIZHONGDEGUOGUONEIXINZENGDINGDANJIANGFUDA16%,ZUJIANQIGUONEIXUQIUDAFUXIAJIANG。


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DEGUOZHUMINGZHIKUYIFUJINGJIYANJIUSUOMEIYUEGONGBUDE“SHANGYEJINGQIZHISHU”,BEIRENWEISHIDEGUOJINGJIDE“QINGYUBIAO”。2019NIANYILAI,GAIZHISHUYIZHIDIYULEGUANHEBEIGUANDEFENJIEXIAN100,QIEZHUYUEXIAJIANG,7YUEYIJIANGZHI95.7。LAIBUNICIJINGJIYANJIUSUOFABUDE“JINGJIQINGXUZHISHU”YEJIANGZHI2012NIANYILAIDEZUIDISHUIPING,XIANSHIQIANJINGQUE,MINZHONGBEIGUANQINGXUJIAOGAO。



构性缺陷凸显


彩搜网DEGUOJINGJIJICHUHAO、YOURENXING,JIAZHIDEGUORENZONGTIJUBEIYANJINRENZHEN、CHIKUNAILAODEPINZHI,JINGGUOZHANGQIJILEI,QIJINGJIBAOCHILEWENDINGHEJIANKANG。DANZHEIBINGBUDAIBIAODEGUOJINGJIWANMEIWUQUE,SHISHISHANG,QIYIZHIDOUCUNZAIZHEJIEGOUXINGQUEXIAN,ERZHENGFUYOUMEIYOUJIYUZUGOUZHONGSHIBINGYUYIGAISHAN,YIZHINANYIYINGDUIXINXINGSHI,TUOLEILEZENGZHANGQIANJING。


彩搜网ZAIQUANQIUZHUYAOJINGJITIZHONG,DEGUODUIMAOYIZUIWEIYILAI。DEGUODECHUKOUZHANGDPBIZHONGZHANGQICHAOGUO40%。SUOWEICHENGYEMAOYI,BAIYEMAOYI,DUIWAIYICUNDUGUOGAO,JIURONGYISHOUGUOJIDAHUANJINGDEYINGXIANG。


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彩搜网DANJINNIANLAI,DEGUOCHUANTONGZHIZAOYEZAOSHOUBUXIAOCHONGJI,LIRUDAZHONGDENGZHIMINGCHEQIXIANHOUXIANRU“PAIFANGMEN”“LONGDUANMEN”DENGCHOUWEN,XIAOLIANGMINGXIANXIAHUA,ZIDONGJIASHIHEDIANDONGQICHEGEMINGYEBUDUANCHONGJICHUANTONGDERANYOUQICHEYETAI。TONGSHI,SUIZHEXINXINGJINGJITIZHIZAOYESHUIPINGTISHENG,DEGUODEYOUSHIZAIBUDUANSUOXIAO。2015NIANQI,DEGUOLIANBANGTIELUGONGSIJIUKAISHIZAIZHONGGUOZHONGCHEJITUANCAIGOULIECHE。ERCIQIAN,GAIGONGSIJIBENZHICONGXIMENZICAIGOULIECHE。


YUCIXIANGDUIYING,DEGUOFUWUYEFAZHANZHIHOU,FUWUMAOYISHUSHINIANLAISHIZHONGSHINICHA;JINRONGYEBUFADA,XINAZIBENNENGLIYUANXUNYUYINGMEI。


DEGUOZHANGQICHENZUIYUJINGMIZHIZAO,SUIZHANJULEDUTEYOUSHI,DANYECUOGUOLESHIDAIFAZHANDACHAO,ZAIXINXIHUASHIDAIYUZHONG、MEIDENGGUOLAKAILEJULI。DEGUOZHENGYAOJINNIANLAIBUDUANZHONGSHEN,SHUZIXINXICHANYEYIJINGCHENGWEIZHIYUEDEGUOJINGZHENGLITISHENGDEYIDADUANBAN。DEGUOBUJINWANGLUOJICHUSHESHIXIANGDUILUOHOU,LIRUGUANGXIANBUGOUPUJI,GONGGONGCHANGSUOJIHUMEIYOUMIANFEIKAIFANGDEWUXIANWANGLUO,DIANZISHANGWUHEYIDONGKEJIYEBUGOUFADA,MEIYOULEISIGUGE、PINGGUO、ALIBABAZHEIYANGDESHUZIXINGYEJUTOU。ZAI5GJIANSHE、RENGONGZHINENGDENGGAOXINLINGYU,DEGUOYANJIULILIANGSUIQIANG,DANTOURUSHIJIANBUDUO,TISHENGKONGJIANJUDA。


CHULEBENSHENGUYOUDEQUEXIANWAI,OUMENGDAHUANJINGBUJIAYEWEIDEGUOJINGJIMENGSHANGLEYICENGYINYING。DEGUOJINGJIZHUYAOYANGLAIOUMENGDANYISHICHANG,QI57%DECHUKOUMIANXIANGOUMENGGUOJIA,1/3DEDUIWAIZHIJIETOUZIZAIOUYUANQU。YINOUMENGZHIXINGGONGTONGMAOYIZHENGCEHEGONGTONGHUOBIZHENGCE,DEGUOYUQITAOUYUANQUGUOJIA“RONGRUYUGONG”,KEWEI“YISUNJUSUN”。

欧盟

德国经济



可以看到,自欧债危机爆发以来,欧盟和欧元区经济整体脆弱,即使有所复苏,幅度也有限。南欧的意大利、西班牙政局不时发生变动。意大利本届政府2018年上台后,与欧盟就预算问题发生争执,造成市场恐慌,舆论甚至担心意大利再度引爆债务危机。2019年,随着全球贸易下滑、需求下降,英、法、荷等欧盟核心国家经济形势均转差,德国很难在这样的大环境下独善其身。



济基本面尚好


JINGJIXINGSHIBUJIAHUOJIANGYINFAYIXILIEFUMIANXIAOYING。SHISHISHANG,DEGUOYECUNZAIPINFUFENHUAJIAJU、GAIGETUIDONGFALIDENGWENTI,ZHISHIZHANGQIYILAIJINGJIXINGSHIJIAOHAO,YANGAILEZHUDUOSHEHUIWENTI。SHIJISHANG,2015NIANNANMINWEIJIYILAI,DEGUOMINZHONGDUIZHENGFUDEBUMANQINGXUJIJU,JIASHANGJIYOUMINCUIZHENGDANGJUEQI,ZHENGJUWENDINGXINGDADAZHEKOU。


彩搜网DUICI,DEGUOZHENGFUYEYOUQINGXINGRENSHI。JINQI,DEGUOZHENGYAOFENFENDUIWAIFASHENG,SHITUHUANJIEWAIJIEDEJIAOLVQINGXU。MOKEERSUICHENGRENSHIJUKUNNAN,DANYESHENGCHENG“WEIDAOBIXUCAIQUCUOSHIDEDIBU”。CAIZHENGBUZHANGSHUERCIZEXINXINMANMANDIBIAOSHI,ZHENGFU“YOUZUGOUSHOUDUANYINGDUIKENENGCHUXIANDEWEIJI”。


YOUWAIMEIJIEDUSHUO,YIDANXINGSHIEHUA,DEGUOZHENGFUJIANGHUIFANGQIYUSUANPINGHENGYUANZELAICIJIJINGJI。DEQUE,ZAIBIEGUOHAIFENDOUZAIJIANZHAIJIANCHIDAOLUSHANGSHI,DEGUOYIJINGLIANXU5NIANSHIXIANCAIZHENGSHOUDAYUZHI,2015NIANYILAIYIZHIMEIYOUXINZENGZHAIWU。

国际贸易



彩搜网MIANDUIZISHENJIEGOUXINGWENTI,DEGUOYEBUSHIWUDONGYUZHONG。JIUZAI2YUE,DEGUOJINGJIBUFABULE《GUOJIAGONGYEZHANLVE2030》,TICHUJIANSHAOQIYEHEBINGDEZHENGCEBILEI,TISHENGQIYEGUIMO,DAZAO“LONGTOUQIYE”,KUODAZHIZAOYEYOUSHI。TONGSHIDAFUTISHENGDUIRENGONGZHINENG、NAMIJISHU、XINCAILIAODENGGAOKEJIJI“HULIANWANGPINGTAIJINGJI”DETOURU,JIFA“TUPOXINGCHUANGXIN”。


JIANYUDEGUODUIWAIMAODEYILAIDUANQINEIHENNANGAIBIAN,DEGUOZHENGJIJILIANHEDUOGUO,SHITUGAISHANGUOJIMAOYIHUANJING。LIRULIANHEZHONG、RIDENGGUOZUJIAN“ZUIGUANGFANLIANMENG”,FANDUIMEIGUOBAOHUZHUYIZUOFA,YUYING、FAYIDAOTUIDONGOUYUANZHIFUTIXIJIANSHE,SHITURAOKAIMEIYUANDEZHANGBEIGUANXIA。


彩搜网ZAIOUMENGCENGMIAN,DEGUOTONGYANGZHILIYUWEIHUCHENGYUANGUOTUANJIEHETONGYISHICHANG,JIJITUIDONGOUZHOUJICHUSHESHIHULIANHUTONG,JIADAZAIZHONGDONGOUTOUZI,GONGGUCHUANTONG“HOUYUAN”。SUIZHEDEGUORENFENGDELAIENDANGXUANOUMENGWEIYUANHUIZHUXI,QIZAIOUMENGCENGMIANYEJIANGGUANCHE“DEGUOLINIAN”,JINKENENGTUIDONGOUMENGHEOUYUANQUDAHUANJINGHAOZHUAN。


ZONGTILAIKAN,DEGUODEJINGJIJIBENMIANRENGRANLIANGHAO。LIRU,DEGUODESHIYERENKOUYIZHIZAIJIANSHAO,SHIYELVSHIZHONGWEICHIZAI5%ZUOYOUDESHUIPING;2019NIANSHANGBANNIAN,DEGUOJINGCHANGZHANGHUYINGYU1264YIOUYUAN,ZHANGDPBIZHONGJIEJIN8%,XIANSHIDEGUORENGYOUCHONGZUCAILIYINGDUIKENENGCHUXIANDEBIANSHU。YINCI,DUANQILAIKAN,DEGUOJINGJISHANGBUZHIYUQUANMIANEHUA。DANZHANGQIERYAN,QIBIXUXIAJUEXINTUIDONGGAIGE,POCHUJIEGOUXINGZHANGAI,YISHIXIANKECHIXUZENGZHANG。


BENWENYOU“YUNQUNA”BIANYI

彩搜网ZHONGZHANYUANYANG—GUOJIZHANLANCHENGLIYU2010NIAN,WOGONGSISHIYIJIAZHILIYUQUANQIUZHANLANHUIZUZHAN、SHANGWUKAOCHA、ZHANTAIDAJIAN、WAISHANGYINJIN、DAIBANCHUGUOSHOUXU、SHENQINGZHANLANBUTIEDEQUANFANGWEIFUWUDEZHANLANGONGSI。

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